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美欧气象数据开放政策对天气泛亚电竞市场的影响分析

时间: 2016-01-13

分享:

李昌义 , 王喆 , 龚江丽

(1zhongguoqixiangjufazhanyanjiuzhongxin,beijing 100086;

泛亚电竞 2shandongshengqixiangkexueyanjiusuo,jinan 250031)

泛亚电竞 suiranmeiguoheoumenggonggongbumenqixiangxinxidetezhenghekaifangzhengcegeyoubutong,dangaodudekaifangxing,juncujinleshangyetianqifanyadianjingshichangdepengbofazhan。benwenduibifenxilemeiguoheouzhoudeqixiangxinxitedian、qixiangzaihaisunshiqingkuang、tianqiyanshengpinshichangqingkuangyijiqixiangxinxishoufeizhengce,keguanshenrudibijiaomianfeiheshoufeiliangzhongkaifangmoshiduitianqifanyadianjingshichangzaochengdeyingxiang,yiqiduifanyadianjingguoxiangguanzhengcedezhidingtigongjiejian。

泛亚电竞一、美国和欧盟气象信息的开放特点

1.meiguo

congmeiguoguojiahaiyangdaqiguanliju(noaa)guanwangzhongyouguanyouxinxikaifangzhengcedejieshaoyijishujufanyadianjingwangyeneironglaikan,diyi,noaaqixianghuanjingxinxikaifangyangezunshoulemeiguo《xinxiziyoufa》dengzhengfuxinxikaifangxiangguandefalvguiding,shixianlejihusuoyoukeyongyewushujuhexinxidekaifang;dier,bianjichengbenshoufei(yibandingyiweimianfei)dezhengceguifan、touming;disan,jiyuehua、xinxihuadechengdufeichanggao,fanyadianjingfangshiduoyang、youshehuililiangcanyu,huoqushujufeichangbianjie,manzulegongzhong、kexueyanjiuyijishangyetianqifanyadianjingyonghukuaisuhuoqushujudexuqiu,dadaolejigaodegongxiangxiaolv。qixianzhutediankeguijiewei“mianfeiwuxianzhi、bianjiegaoxiaolvdequanmiankaifang”。

泛亚电竞 2.yingguoyuoumeng

在英国,政府部门信息资源具有“王室版权所有:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞注册-官网APP下载

muqianoumengdabufenguojiadeqixiangshujukaifangzhengceyuyingguoleisi。zaishijieqixiangzuzhi(wmo)1995nian6yuetongguozhizaimingque“mianfeihewuxianzhi”jiaohuande“jibenziliaohechanpin”de40haojueyihou,weiletongyishujukaifangzhengce,tongnian11yue,25geouzhouguojiazaibilishizujianle“ouzhoujingjiquguojiaqixiangjujingjiliyijituan(ecomet)”,laixiediaogechengyuanguoweishangyeqixiangjingzhengtigonggongpingyizhideshujufanyadianjing,jianlijiagexiediaojizhiheshujujiaohuanwangluo,fangbianyonghuzaibenguoqixiangbumenhuoqugechengyuanguodeqixiangxinxi,tongshiyexingchenglexiangguandechanquanbaohujizhi。

泛亚电竞二、欧洲与美国气象市场的差距

laizioumengweiyuanhuiduigonggongbumenxinxizhilingpinglunbaogaobiaoming[3],2006nianoumengtianqifanyadianjingshichangshourudayuezai5.3yiouyuan,xiangduiyu1998nianzengjiale60%,nianjunzengzhang7.5%。pettifer(2014)[4]defenxibaogaoxianshi: buhandaxinghangkongfanyadianjingshichang(zhuyaoyouguojiaqixiangjigouzhanjudangongbushujujiaoshao),qizhongdeshangyetianqifanyadianjingshichangshouruyuewei3.3yiouyuan,jiao1996niande1.5yiouyuanshuiping,nianjunzengzhangle12%;ouzhousiyingqixiangjigoudeshichangfenecong1996nianbuzuguojiaqixiangshuiwenjigoudeyiban,erzai2007nian-2010nianqijianyichaoguoguojiaqixiangshuiwenjigou。zheixiejieguoshuomingoumenggeguogonggongbumenxinxizailiyongzhengcedegaishan,zaicujinsiyingtianqifanyadianjinggongsifazhanfangmianqudelejijidechengxiao。


tu1 2006-2011niandeouzhouqixiangfanyadianjingshichangchanzhi

数据来源:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞注册-官网APP下载


David B.Spiegler(2007)的分析报告显示: 2006年美国气象泛亚电竞市场营业额约在16.5-18.0亿美元之间(按汇率折算大约是2006年欧洲市场的2.5倍),约是1995年9.4亿美元水平的1.8倍,年均增长约8.4%。在天气衍生品市场方面[1]泛亚电竞,美国2004年、2005年和2006年合约额分别为20亿、80亿和400亿美元。而2006年度涉及欧洲的天气衍生品合约数仅占全球的约2-4%(图3)。


tu2 quanqiutianqiyanshengpinheyuezongmingyijiazhi(2001.04-2007.03)

zhu: cme: daibiaozhijiageqihuojiaoyisuo;otc: daibiaoqihuoshichangwaideheyue

数据来源:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞注册-官网APP下载


泛亚电竞 tu3 quanqiutianqiyanshengpinheyueshuliangdiqufenbu[5](2001.04-2007.03)


泛亚电竞三、欧美气象信息开放政策对气象泛亚电竞市场的影响

从美国和欧洲气象泛亚电竞市场规模的对比来看,无论天气泛亚电竞市场还是天气衍生品市场,美国的规模都比欧洲大的多。下面将从气象灾害损失和天气衍生品市场产生的天气泛亚电竞需求两个方面进行比较说明,分析导致这种差距的原因,并利用“斯科定理”进一步分析收费政策对市场的影响。

泛亚电竞 (yi)jielunyi: meiguoqixiangfanyadianjingshichangdexuqiubiouzhouqiangjing

泛亚电竞从气象基础环境来看,欧洲很多发达经济区处在温带海洋气候和地中海气候区域,或与大陆性气候过渡的区域,天气的剧烈程度和温度的季节波动大大低于美国;同时欧洲这些气候区的畜牧业和工业化农业占比较大,受天气和气候影响的程度较美国大面积的粮食种植也低得多。

ouzhouhuanjingjigougongbudexinxixianshi[6]: 1998nian-2007nian,ouzhouqixiangzaihaidenianjunzhengtisunshiyue95yiouyuan;ernoaafabudemeiguoqixiangzaihaidesunshitongjixianshi[7],tongqimeiguo10yimeiyuanyishangdeqixiangzaihaisunshinianjundadao520yimeiyuan,shitongqiouzhoude4beiyishang。1980nian-2007nian,ouzhouqixiangzaihaizhengtisunshizuidanianfenshi1982nian,da220yiouyuan,ermeiguo2005nianchaoguo10yimeiyuandesunshileijigaodajin2000yimeiyuan,lingyou1980nian、1988nian、1992nian、2004niansinianchaoguole500yimeiyuan。

泛亚电竞 meiguoshinengyuanxiaohaodaguo,xiangduiyuoumengzhuyaoguojia,1990nian-2012nianjianrenjunnengyuanxiaohaozhangqijiejinoumengzhuyaoguojiade2bei[8],zheiyeshimeiguoshangshiji90niandaidanshengdiyibitianqiyanshengpinjiaoyidejichu。meiguodenengyuanleitianqiyanshengleichanpindejiaoyizai2005nianduzhandaoquanqiutianqiyanshengleichanpinjiaoyiede69%。

yinci,wuluntianqifanyadianjingshichanghaishitianqiyanshengpinshichang,meiguodexuqiudouyaobiouzhouqiangjingdeduo。

泛亚电竞(二)结论二: 收费对天气衍生品市场基本没有影响

泛亚电竞 tianqiyanshengpinshichangxuyaodeziliaokehuafenweisanlei,yishizhuruliangshichanliang、nengyuanxiaohao、shouyisunshidengjutidelishijingjishuju;ershilishiqixiangguanceshuju,henduoshiguojijiaohuandemianfeishuju。zheiqianliangleishujuzhuyaoyongyufenxitianqijingjiguanxi、shejitianqizhishu。sanshiweilaidetianqiheqihouyuce,zuoweiyongyujiaoyidejueceyiju,quanqiudoukecongmeiguomianfeixiazaihuoxiangouzhoudeguanfangjigougoumaishuzhimoshiyubaodengyouguanchanpinjinxingfenxi,zheiduiyuquanqiudejingyingzhedoushiyizhide。tuzipeide《dashuju》(2013)yishuyinyongyouguanbaogaozhichu,yinweiouzhouqixiangziliaoshoufeierzaochengleoumeitianqiyanshengpinshichangdejudachaju,danzai2006nianliangzhezhijianyijingjibenshangmeiyouleguanlianxing。yinci,tianqiyanshengpinshichangdefazhanyuqixiangziliaoshifoushoufei,jibenshangmeiyouguanlian。

(三)结论三: 天气衍生品市场有放大天气泛亚电竞常规需求的效应

tianqiyanshengpindejiaoyizhexuyaoweilaitianqideyucexinxizuoweijiaoyidejuececankao,zheiyixuqiujitianqifanyadianjingshichangzengzhangdailailejudajiyu。david b.spiegler(2007)zaifenximeiguotianqifanyadianjingshichangkuaisufazhandeyuanyinshijizhichulezheiyiyinsu。danzheizhongxuqiubutongyuguoquyonghuzhijieyongyuzhidaojutishengchanhuodongdechangguixuqiu,yinweibixianchanpindefashouzhehetoujixingjiaoyidemudebuzaiyuci。zheijiuhuiduichangguidetianqifanyadianjingxuqiuqidaofangdazuoyong,qiehuiyintoujixingjiaoyidebukegucexingerchengbeifangda。ruyijiaduiwendumingandenengyuangongyingshang,xuyaochangguidetianqifanyadianjinglaihelianpaidiaodugongyinghezijinzhouzhuandengjingyinghuodong,danyinzhongzhangqidetianqiyucezhunquexingbugaoyounanmianhuichanshengsunshi,zheiyejiuchanshenglegoumaitianqiyanshengpinjiangdifengxiandexuqiu;erbixianchanpindefashouzhehetoujixingjiaoyizetongyangxuyaotianqiyucexinxi,zheijiufangdalenengyuangongyingshangzuichudechangguixuqiu。

pettifer(2008)defenxijieguoxianshi[9],meiguo1999-2006nianjiantianqifanyadianjingshichangdezengzhanglvdadao17%,dadagaoyu1995-2006nianmeiguotianqifanyadianjingshichang8.4%dezengzhanglvtongji,suiranliangzhedetongjikoujinghuiyouchayi,danzaishijianshangyutianqiyanshengpin1999nianjinruzhijiageqihuoshichanghoukaishixunsufazhangaoduwenhe,xianshichutianqifanyadianjingshichangyutianqiyanshengpinshichangdegaoduxiangguanxing。

2007nian,ouzhoutianqifanyadianjingshichangzaioumengjingjizengzhang2.8%deqingkuangxiaquexiahuayuele15%(0.5yiouyuan,tu1),zheiyutongqitianqiyanshengpinshichangdedafuxiajianggaoduxiangguan。youtu2-tu3dezoushibianhua,dazhikeyituiduanchu2005/06niandu(4yuedaocinian3yue,xiatong)ouzhoutianqiyanshengpinjiaoyidadaofengzhi,2006/07niandudafuxiajiang,congyue18yimeiyuanzuoyoujiangzhibuzu4yimeiyuan。zheixiejiaoyihendabililaiziouzhoudechangwaijiaoyi(otc),zaizhijiageshangshideouzhouchanpinduitianqifanyadianjingdexuqiuyehuichuandaodaoouzhou。2008/09niandushijietianqiyanshengpinshichangdafuxiajiangdao150yimeiyuan,ouzhounengyuanbixianchanpinchangwaijiaoyiyedadaozuididian、erhouzai2009/10niandukaishiyousuohuisheng,zhihou2011nianquanqiuzongjiaoyiejiangzhi98yimeiyuandexindidian。2010/11nianduouzhoudechangwaiheyuejiaoyizengzhangsudukuaiyuquanqiushichang,dadaole15yimeiyuan[10],ouzhoutianqifanyadianjingshichangyechuxianlemingxiandefusu。tongqiouzhoutianqifanyadianjingshichangdebodongzaishijianhequshishangyuzheixiedougaoduxiangguan。

2012nian《jingjixueren》(the economist)baodaozhichu,ouzhouyichengweitianqiyanshengpinnengyuanbixianchanpindezuidashichang,zheilaiziyuouzhouxinnengyuanbuduanzengzhangdexuqiu[12]。tu4xianshichuleouzhoutaiyangnengfadianshichangfeneyijifadianliangzai2010nian、2011niandekuaisuzengzhang,zheiduichangguitianqifanyadianjingshichanghetianqiyanshengpinshichangdoushiyigeqiangjingdedaidong。

泛亚电竞 tu4 ouzhouliniandianlizhuangjijiegoufenbuyukezaishengnengyuanfadianfene[13](mw,%)


ruguoba2007nianouzhoutianqifanyadianjingshichangxiajiang0.5yiouyuanquanbuguiyinyutianqiyanshengpinshichangxiajiangle15yiouyuan(youtu2-3tuisuan),zemeiguotianqiyanshengpinshichangheyueeyou2006niande400yimeiyuanxiajiangdao2011niandebuzu100yimeiyuan,youkenengzaochengtianqifanyadianjingshichangdeguimoxiajiangdao6-8yimeiyuan,congerzaizongliangshangyuouzhoutianqifanyadianjingshichangdeguimoxiangdang。yinci,kaolvdaomeiguoxuqiuguimodeyinsu,ouzhoutianqifanyadianjingshichangdefazhanbingbubimeiguoxunse,nanyidechuouzhouqixiangshujushoufeizhengcezhiyueleshichangfazhandejielun。

(四)结论四: 印证了“科斯定理”产权明晰和降低交易成本的重要性

泛亚电竞 xinzhidujingjixuedebizuluonade•hali•kesi(ronald harry coase),yin“kesidingli”detichuhuodele1991nuobeierjingjixuejiang。gaidinglirenwei: ruguoshangpinjiagezhiwaidejiaoyichengben(weidachengjiaoyichanshengdechengben)weilinghuozhehenxiao,wulunchanquanruheanpai,getizhijiandeziyouxieshangdouhuidaozhiyouxiaolvdejieguo。qizhongyaodeshehuijingjixueyiyizaiyumingxichanquandetongshi,yingnulibuduanjiangdijiaoyichengben,cujinziyuanfenpeidadaozuijiazhuangtai。

泛亚电竞 ouzhouyiyingguoweidaibiao,guoyouqixiangshujushuyuzhengfuzichan,suiranyumeiguozhengfuxinxishuyuquanminzichandelifadaweibutong,danchanquanguishufeichangmingxi。shangshiji90niandaihouqiyilai,yingguoheoumengqitaguojiatuijinlekaifangfaguifanyadianjing、jianhuashouquanchengxu、wanshangongpingjingzhengzhidudengyixiliecujingonggongbumenxinxizailiyongdezhengcecuoshi,jiazhiouzhouqixiangshujudewangluohuajiyuefanyadianjingshuipingyujiatigao,shideqixiangshujudejiaoyichengbenbuduanjiangdi,buduanquxiangkesidinglidexiandingtiaojian。yinci,suiranzaiouzhouguoyouqixiangxinxixuyaofufei,danshitianqifanyadianjingshichangdefazhanyumeiguoxiangbibingmeiyoudaozhitichuxuqiuyinsuhoudejudachaju,shenzhiouzhouzaishuzhiyubaolingyudejishushuipingchaoguolemeiguo。

youcikanlai,suiranoumeideqixiangxinxikaifangzhengcebutong,danduishichangdeyingxiangfangmianhendachengdushangyinzhengle“kesidingli”。

四、英国气象信息开放政策和模式的效应分析

congnashuifudan、shujuzhiliang、shangyeliyonggonggongbumenshujudegongpingxingjijingjixuejiaodu,zhongdianfenxiyingguoqixiangxinxikaifangzailiyongzhengcedeyoushi。

1.nashuifudandejianshao

泛亚电竞 2006-2007caizhengnianduyingguoqixiangjushichangshangyefanyadianjingshouru2687wanyingbang(zhanzongjingfeide15.7%)[14],keweiguominrenjunjianshao0.45yingbangdenashuifudan,siyinggongsian40%deshichangzhanyoulv(tu1)、15%deshuilv(gujizhi,xiatong)jisuanyuekegongxianguominrenjun0.03yingbangdeshuishou。2006nianmeiguotianqifanyadianjingshichangyingyee,anzhao15%deshuilvyezengjialeguominrenjunyue0.86meiyuandeshuishou,liangzhedazhixiangdang。danruqianfenxi,2006nianmeiguodetianqifanyadianjingshichangqingkuangyoutianqiyanshengpinshichangbaofashizengzhangdaidongdeteshuxing,yibannianfenyaodihenduo;lingwaiyingguogongzhongyenenggengzhijiedikandaoleshuishoufudandejianshao。

泛亚电竞 2.shujuzhiliangdezhunquexing

泛亚电竞 zaihexinyubaojishufangmian,yingguoqixiangjuquanqiuzhongqishuzhitianqiyubaomoshi(ukm)deyubaoshuipingzai2007nianchaoguolemeiguogfshouwenjuquanqiucixi(shujuzhi2013nian)[15],qibeihoudequdongliyeyingbaokuocanyushichangjingzhengdejili。2012nian,youyumeiguogfsdui“sangdi”jufengdelujingyubaoburuecmwfzhunquehekeyongshixiaozhang,yinfalemeiguoguanyutianqiyubaonengliluohouyuouzhoudetaolun,meiguozhongyiyuanjingguoduochangtingzhenghuihou,zai2014nian4yuetongguolezhizaihuifumeiguotianqiyubaolingyulingdaodiweide《tianqiyubaogaijinfaan(2014)》[16]。

3.mianfeishujudegongpingxing

gonggongzijintouruchanshengdeshujumianfeibeiqiyeyongyuyingliyedequecunzaiyidingdegongpingxingwenti,suirankeyitongguoshuishoufangshijinxingbuchang,dangongzhongbuyidingpubianjieshou。2012nianmeiguoguojiaqixiangcaizhengtourujingfeiguominrenjungaoda17.9meiyuan,eryingguojinwei4.63meiyuan[18]。meiguojingzhengxingqiyeyanjiusuofuzhuxiiain murray 2011nianjiuzhuanwenzhiyi“daliangzhengfuqixiangxinxibeihangkong、haiyundengqiyewuchangyingyongchengweileyizhonggongsifuli”[19]。

泛亚电竞 4.kaifangmoshidepaleituozuiyou

英国气象信息开放模式的经验总结,在很大程度上符合经济学中分析公共物品供给问题的“帕累托改进[2]”。一是国家气象机构参与公平竞争并没有使其他人的利益受到损害(公众利益和产业发展);同时在市场规模不足或波动较大时,对供给不能保障或质量不高进行补位(如气候预测产品需求受经济周期影响,私营公司不能稳定持久开展),从而更有效地配置了气象资源;二是对私营气象公司获取资料如果完全免费,对纳税人来讲有不公平的问题,并可能产生“搭便车问题[3]”(如抵触而不愿再增加投入);不超过成本收费,也没有违反经济规则使商用者的利益受到损害;三是收费能抑制“公地悲剧[4]”现象的出现,如信息的无效用过度供给和过度获取增加了公共投入成本,这也有“帕累托改进”的意义。

泛亚电竞 wulunyingguohaishimeiguo,guojiaqixiangcaizhengdetourudoudadachaoguoshichangguimo,chongfendishuomingleqixiangchanpindegonggongwupinshuxing。suiranxifenzhixia,suizheyonghuqundejianshao,youxiekejiedingweizhungonggongwupinhesirenyongpinyoushichanggongji,danguojiaqixiangjigouhaishizongtiguimoshangdegongyingzhuti,canyushichanghuodongyenengjishibuchonggongjibuzudewenti。yingguoyizhijianchiduijuyou“zhungonggongwupin”shuxingdezhuanyexingqixiangshujuhuishouchengben,jiaozhimeiguo,zaiyouxiaofenpeiziyuanfangmiangengfuhe“paleituogaijin”dejingjixueyiyi。

lingwai《dashuju》(2013)yishuzhongyejieshao: yingguodeyixiezhengzhilingxiu、jishujingyingburenkegonggongshujudemianfeimoshi,renweishujudejiazhiguanjianzaiyuzhiliang,ermianfeikenengshidizhiliangdedaimingci。duibioumeizaishuzhiyubaolingyudejishuchaju,ciguandianhuoxuyekeyidedaobufenyinzheng。

五、欧洲气象数据开放和数据收费的政策趋势

进入21世纪,开源软件(Open Source)的倡导者们发起了数据开放(Open Data)运动,号召进一步不受著作权、专利权以及其他任何限制,开放包括社会组织和企业拥有的各类公共数据供自由查询和使用,得到了很多国家政府的积极响应。2009年,美国建立了政府数据门户网站data.gov,其后一波声势浩大的政府数据开放运动开始在全球范围内迅速兴起。英国作为在《信息自由法》立法过程中较为保守的国家,在政府数据开放运动中已经超过美国处在领跑位置,2010年以来英国政府围绕版权所有:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞注册-官网APP下载

六、主要结论

1.suiranyingguo(huooumeng)qixiangshujukaifanghezailiyongmoshishoudaoyixiefumianpingjia,yeyou2006nianmeiguotianqifanyadianjingshichang2.5beiyuouzhoudebijiaochaju,danzaimeiguofanyadianjingxuqiuwangshengdebeijingxia,bunengdechuyingguomoshixiangduiyumeiguozhiyueletianqifanyadianjingshichangfazhandejielun;quekeyiyinzheng“kesidingli”guanyuchanquanmingxihejiaoyichengbenjiangdigengweizhongyaodelilunyiji“shujumianfeikenengshidizhiliang”deguandian,tongshichanshengleyingguogongzhongleyujiandaodenashuijianshao、quanqiumoshishuipinggaoyumeiguo,yijiduishangyeliyonghuishouchengbenzhijiexianxiangongpingxingdengzhengmianxiaoying。

2.qudezheixiexiaoguodeyiyuyingguojiqitaoumengguojiashangshiji90niandaihouqiyilaigonggongbumenxinxikaifangfaguidezhubuwanshan、chanquanzhidudemingxi、shouquanzhidudebuduanjianhuahejianligongpingjingzhengzhidudengyixiliegaijin,yijifahuizhongyaozuoyongdeouzhouwangluohuajiyuefanyadianjing。

泛亚电竞 3.meiguoheyingguogonggongqixiangcaizhengtourudoudadachaochushichangguimo,xianshichuguojiaqixiangjigourengshiqixiangchanpindetigongzhuti;yingguoheqitaoumengguojiayizhijianchiduizhuanyexingshujuhuishouchengbenhecanyushichangfanyadianjing,zaiyouxiaofenpeiziyuanfangmianfuhe“paleituogaijin”dejingjixueyiyi。


cankaowenxian

泛亚电竞 [1] tuzipei. 2013.dashuju[m].guilin: guangxishifandaxuechubanshe.130;272

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[5] 泛亚电竞The Weather Risk Management Association .Celebrating 10 Years of Weather Risk Industry Growth.(2011-03-22) [2013-10-15].http://www.wrma.org/pdf/WRMA_Booklet_%20FINAL.pdf

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[1]泛亚电竞 天气衍生品市场上的交易物是天气指数合约,合约里包括了交易双方关于天气风险的转移所达成的协定,比如天气标的指数、指数参考地点、合约保护期(开始和结束日期)、交易日、指数的执行水平、赔付率、最高赔付额、权利金、交易的货币币种等。

[2] “帕累托改进”是指,假定固有的一群人和可分配的资源,从一种分配状态到另一种状态的变化中,在没有使任何人境况变坏的前提下,使得至少一个人变得更好,这就是“帕累托改进”。

[3] “搭便车问题”: 是一种发生在公共财务上的问题,是指经济中某个体消费的资源超出他的公允份额,或承担的生产成本少于他应承担的公允份额。

[4] “公地悲剧”现象: 公地作为一项资源或财产有许多拥有者,他们中的每一个都有使用权,但没有权利阻止其他人使用,而每一个人都倾向于过度使用,从而造成资源的枯竭。

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